Global Test 101
They play at chess together
Studying like crazy for the big global test (thinking of you loyal opposition!) with the Iranians and found this from Der Spiegelto be a good snapshot of the German effort and very enlightening to boot. (or is that Das Boot?)
Der Spiegel puts Angela Merkel's world view succinctly and well:
During her first state visits, Merkel was quick to distinguish among what she called "friends" (the United States), "partners" (Russia) and "European allies" (France and Britain). Now that she has defined these relationships, she finds herself involved in a complex game of give-and-take called international diplomacy.
She's the new gal on the block but she isn't shy about putting it out there. I like that in a girl.
Iran has been keeping world leaders -- including the German chancellor -- extremely busy of late. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's threats against Israel and his insistence on Tehran's right to pursue a comprehensive nuclear program have left Merkel with no other choice but to spend considerable time telephoning with her own foreign minister, Bush and with United Nations Secretary General Kofi Annan.
Ah yes. Kofi.
...it was Kofi Annan who reminded Merkel in a confidential telephone call last week that rejection by the Russians and the Chinese would only encourage the Iranians to move ahead with their plans. Tehran is sure to interpret the failure of a UN resolution as a free ticket to a nuclear future.
About France. Der Speigel gets snarky.
The French president, under pressure on the domestic front, issued a barely veiled threat of nuclear attack against Iran. It was an appearance in the true Gaulic tradition, one that seemed more suited to feeding the nostalgia of a declining world power than to resolving conflict.
Then they get speculative.
Chirac's aggressive statement had not been coordinated with anyone, including Merkel or Foreign Minister Steinmeier. The chancellor is sure to mention the issue in her face-to-face discussion with Chirac on Monday. She will accept his claim that his comments were misinterpreted. But from here onwards, she will also surely mistrust him just a bit.
Surely Der Speigel? Not so fast there. Remember it IS a woman's prerogative to change her mind. And just like a woman, Angela was next off to see Vladimir Putin.
Merkel asked Putin to take Iranian President Ahmadinejad seriously. Germany once had a politician whom no one took seriously at first, she said in an allusion to Adolf Hitler, who initially forged an alliance with the Russians before attacking them. Then she asked Putin how he intended to exert pressure on Tehran, other than through the UN Security Council. Putin is afraid that referring the matter to the Security Council Iran could prompt Iran to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. He is also worried about Iranian Revolutionary Guards fanning out into Russia's Muslim regions, which could cause a dramatic escalation of the situation internationally.
They also discussed the Russian Plan:
Under the Russian plan, Iran would gain fuel material for power generation, but not the fissile material used in building nuclear weapons. The Russians would play the role of an international trustee of sorts, alleviating the West's concerns and allowing the Iranians to use nuclear energy for peaceful, power generation purposes. The proposal was well-received in the West, even prompting US National Security Advisor Stephen Hadley to say it merited further discussion.
Not so fast, say the mullahs.
Publicly, at least, Iran's mullah-dominated regime seemed to be against Putin's idea, at first claiming that it hadn't even received the proposal. In early January, a spokesman for the Iranian Foreign Ministry issued the following statement: "This proposal is unacceptable if it means that enrichment can only occur in Russia."
Moscow was irritated. Konstantin Kosachev, chairman international affairs committee in the Russian parliament, the Duma, was taken aback by the Iranians' insistence on their own uranium enrichment facilities, saying that it is "cause for concern" and that he was "deeply disappointed." But when Putin met with Merkel, he told her that the mullahs had changed their minds, or were at least engaging in a double-sided strategy.
An Iranian about face. Or not.
On Tuesday, Iran's top nuclear negotiator Javad Vaidi wrote in a letter to his European counterparts that the Iranians are interested in returning to the negotiating table. Of course, the letter did not specify what Iranians envisioned as the subject of the talks.
Enter the Egyptians:
The Egyptians, acting as proxies for the Iranian regime, had some interesting news for Steinmeier(ed. note: German foreign minister). Apparently the Iranian foreign minister wanted Steinmeier to know that Iran is willing to enter into further negotiations, especially with regard to the Russian proposal for a joint uranium enrichment facility. But there was one condition: China had to be involved.
What about China?
Germany continues to work behind the scenes:
This is why officials at the Chancellery are seeking ways to assemble a cooperative effort, using as their model the so-called Contact Group for Kosovo -- an effort that involved the United States, Germany, France, Britain, Italy and Russia.
After all is said and done the vibe isn't good.
Even optimists in the administration question whether Iran will be impressed by threats from Paris, proposals from Moscow or Angela Merkel's persistent international diplomacy. The pessimists say these efforts are unlikely to make an impact on the Iranians, simply because the West is taking too logical an approach. All of these efforts are based on the assumption that the regime in Tehran is acting rationally and wants to avoid isolation in the global community at any cost. It is possible that this premise is simply incorrect. "Perhaps Ahmadinejad doesn't care whether or not Iran becomes a pariah state," says one senior German diplomat involved in the issue.
Never let it be said that Der Spiegel doesn't have a sense of humor. They finish the article by saying.
Merkel's predecessor, Gerhard Schröder, consistently kept himself out of the Iran conflict -- for fear of becoming bogged down in a hopeless case. His foreign policy advisor, Bernd Mützelburg, once revealed the motto of Schröder's foreign policy in a private meeting: "The foreign minister is responsible for hopeless cases."
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