Tuesday, September 30, 2008

No one is rolling the dice today...

Back in the day, a bunch of guys I knew from work used to set up a private casino in the presidential suite at the Vista Hotel in the World Trade Center. Roulette, baccarat, poker, craps, the whole shooting match. It was always a wild and fun scene. The cigar smoke was thick in the air, the room was full of men in their bespoke dress shirts, with their ties loosened and sleeves rolled up. The liquor was flowing and as the evening went on the bets got larger and larger. The craps table was always where the action was.

Funny, that this would come to mind this morning when I heard a trader say, "no one is rolling the dice today..."

Bond traders are still on the sidelines with their hands in their pockets. What that means is institutions aren't taking positions and probably won't until the government does...

LIBOR, the rate banks charge each other, is now at a record high. That means that banker's sphincters are still tighter than a duck's butt and that's water tight. There were more bank rescues overnight in Europe, 2 British, 1 Italian.

Yesterday's sell off at the close was due to Japanese hedge fund redemptions (yesterday was the end of their FY). Program trades that sold into the market, driving it down because their were no buyers on the other side.

Look for people to "sell into the bell" this morning
and a relief rally. The real action will occur at the close.